Posts Tagged ‘prediction’
Posted by mattusmaximus on May 7, 2013
I make no bones about how I feel about various psychic charlatans who take advantage of the desperate, grieving, and bereaved: they’re pretty close to scraping the bottom of the barrel, in my view. At the top of this list is none other than the queen of psychic charlatans: Sylvia Browne.
Ms. Browne has made a career, literally, out of taking advantage of any opportunity, no matter how sleazy, to get in front of cameras in order to promote herself and her supposed “psychic powers”. In many cases, this takes the form of her going on a popular daytime television show, such as the Montel Williams Show, and giving readings to various audience members. And sometimes, she has stooped so low as to give authoritative-sounding psychicly-guided advice to people who have lost loved ones.
Of course, such psychic predictions can backfire when people actually take the time to examine them critically (such as keeping track of the New Year predictions made by prominent psychics which are complete and total duds). But sometimes, especially when dealing with those who are really going for the gusto (like Ms. Browne), these predictions can fail in a truly spectacular and despicable manner, as it did with what is turning out to be a huge fiasco regarding the discovery and rescue of kidnapping victim Amanda Berry in Cleveland, Ohio. It just so happens that not long after their daughter went missing over 10 years ago, Amanda’s parents went onto the Montel Williams Show to consult with Ms. Browne, who told them – rather unequivocally – that their daughter was dead…
… yup, dead. Which is kind of exactly the opposite of what Amanda really was… you know, alive and hoping someone would find her? Whoops…
Sylvia Browne is coming under fire after the television psychic told the family of Cleveland kidnapping victim Amanda Berry that their daughter was dead.
The case made national headlines this week when Brown and two other kidnapped girls were found safe in Cleveland. But for the family of Amanda Berry, that does not undo the heartache caused by Sylvia Browne.
Browne was a weekly guest on The Montel Williams Show, and in 2004 Berry’s mother Louwana Miller appeared to talk about the case.
As Miller pleaded for her for information on her daughter’s whereabouts, Sylvia Browne, got it completely wrong:
Miller: Can you tell me if they’ll ever find her? Is she out there?
Browne: She’s — see, I hate this when they’re in water. I just hate this. She’s not alive, honey. And I’ll tell you why, here we go again. Your daughter was not the type that would not have called you.
Miller: So you don’t think I’ll ever get to see her again?
Browne: Yeah, in heaven, on the other side.
Brown was correct on the last prediction, though it does not appear to be intentional. Berry’s mother would die of heart failure two years later — her family said she died of a “broken heart” after her hopes of a rescue were dashed by Browne’s vision.
Now Sylvia Brown has come under assault, with commentators calling her a “grief vampire” and her Twitter page coming under assault. [emphasis added]
And to me that is one of the real tragedies of this whole sordid affair. Not only have Ms. Browne and similar psychic charlatans used the grief of people to take advantage of them in their most vulnerable moments to promote themselves and their cheesy, pseudoscientific agenda, but they have also propped themselves up as some kind of authority with no evidence to support their claims. And then they go making terribly irresponsible statements such as what Ms. Browne did regarding Amanda Berry; sadly, because Louwana Miller gave some kind of credence to Ms. Browne and her psychic claims, because she trusted Browne, she was horribly and terribly deceived… eventually dying thinking that her daughter was dead.
[ **Side note: Lest you think I'm being a bit too hard on Ms. Browne, it should be noted that this isn't her first high-profile grade-A screwup. For more history, check out her involvement in the Shawn Hornbeck fiasco. ]
I’m not one to say there should be a law against being a douchebag, especially such a self-aggrandizing and deceitful one such as Ms. Browne and her psychic ilk, but I do think it is incumbent upon those of us who call ourselves skeptics and critical thinkers to call these charlatans out on their lies and douchebaggery. We need to call them out long and loud on their lies and deceit, and we need to use these sad episodes as a lesson in teaching others the use of thinking a bit more critically about such extraordinary claims.
Posted in psychics | Tagged: abduction, accuracy, Amanda Berry, charlatan, cherry pick, Cleveland, cold reading, dead, death, died, esp, fail, failed, fake, hits, hot reading, kidnapping, medium, mentalism, mind reading, misses, Montel Williams, New Year's Eve, New Years, paranormal, post diction, prediction, predictions, pseudoscience, psychic, psychics, Shawn Hornbeck, skeptical activism, skepticism, Sylvia Browne, talking to the dead | 15 Comments »
Posted by mattusmaximus on January 2, 2013
Well, here we are once again, and it’s time for that time-honored tradition of checking the accuracy of famous psychic predictions of the past year. As you’ll see, when subjected to scrutiny, the vast majority of these predictions fail pretty badly. However, there are all too many faithful followers of psychic woo who want to believe that it works. One of the primary ways in which believers fool themselves is to cherry-pick the predictions and results; in skeptic-speak, we call this “counting the hits and ignoring the misses”.
Ummm… yeah. It’s kind of like that. Image source
And there are a LOT more misses than hits, folks. In addition, many of these psychics tend to make very vague and ambiguous predictions which can be twisted and interpreted in a number of ways. This creative interpretation of misses or vague predictions after-the-fact as hits is well documented in the history of psychic woo. Let’s see how well those predictions for 2012 worked out by referencing this About.com article from one year ago…
A LOT OF people are looking at 2012 with a mixture of dread and hope. The last few years have been tough financially for many people, and there’s been all of that apocalyptic talk about Mayan calendars and doom and gloom. What will really happen in 2012 I’m sure will surprise all of us. Recently, readers like you made your predictions for 2012, but we always seem to be curious about what the professional psychics foresee. Here are selected predictions for 2012 from some of the most well-known and sought-after psychics, seers, and mentalists from around the world.
Let’s just begin this exercise by examining the first psychic on the list:
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in psychics | Tagged: 2012, 2013, accuracy, astrology, cherry pick, esp, fail, failed, future, Hamilton, hits, James Randi, LaMont Hamilton, mentalism, Million Dollar Challenge, Million Dollar Prize, mind reading, misses, Monte, New Year's Eve, New Years, paranormal, post diction, prediction, predictions, pseudoscience, psychic, psychics, skepticism | 2 Comments »
Posted by mattusmaximus on May 28, 2012
Just in case you didn’t hear, the world was supposed to end yesterday (May 27th, 2012). At least, that’s according to self-proclaimed “last apostle in this age” Ronald Weinland, who predicted that the apocalypse would be preceded by World War III with most of Earth being laid waste by a nuclear war. And, of course, Weinland (like so many other doomsday prophets) pointed to his interpretation of the Bible as evidence of the End Times…
Written on April 29, 2012
As readers of this site know, May 27, 2012, is the time that I have stated as being the date Jesus Christ will return as King of kings over all government on this earth. For such an event to come to pass, the Trumpets of Revelation must all sound, the United States and dollar collapse, the ten nations of Europe arise to fulfill the final revival of the Holy Roman Empire, and Russia with China must unite against Europe in WWIII.
As an aside, readers of this site should also grasp that as far as prophecy is concerned, ten nations in Europe have already combined in association with one another to the degree that the mixture of clay and iron is fulfilled. All that remains is their entrance into a final war, a prophecy that can be fulfilled quickly, as this posting will cover.
How is it possible or even conceivable that all these things can happen in such a short time? And what if none of these events have occurred as late as five, four, or even three days before Jesus Christ is to return? Is it truly reasonable that Christ is coming on May 27th? No, it is not reasonable, not within the parameters of man’s thinking. When this date was given just over three and a half years ago, it was not reasonable to people then, and now it has simply become that much more unreasonable.
But as the last apostle in this age, and as God’s end-time prophet, I am still telling people that this is true and that a short-lived WWIII is now at our doorstep. Due to this strong conviction, the Church of God – PKG is putting all its resources into promoting this final message of Christ’s impending return in order to complete the “work” that God has given us to do. This “work” is nearly complete. As my previous post was written over two months ago, this may well prove to be my final one, since there are only four weeks remaining in this age. …
Folks, as the saying goes, this is deja vu all over again. Here we are, on the day after supposed armaggedon, and there’s no nuclear holocaust, no fire raining down from heaven, no Rapture, and no return of Jesus Christ. In fact, things seem to be moving right along just as they were yesterday and the day before that (and so on…).
Need I point out the obvious, yet again? The obvious being that every single time one of these religious fundamentalists rants about the end-of-the-world, they end up being wrong. And, for the record, over the course of human civilization, there have been a LOT of these failed predictions!
Which begs the next obvious question: why does anyone bother to listen to these so-called “prophets” anymore?
Posted in doomsday, religion | Tagged: 2011, 2012, 5-27, 5-27-11, 5/27, 5/27/11, apocalypse, armaggedon, Bible, calendar, camping, Christ, cosmic, doomsday, end of the world, Eschatology, God, holocaust, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, Last Judgement, May 27, New Age, nuclear, prediction, prophecy, Prophet, Rapture, return, Revelation, Ronald Weinland, the rapture, war, World War III, WWIII | 1 Comment »
Posted by mattusmaximus on May 22, 2012
As we ramp up for yet another frenzied political season where, no doubt, there will be much drama and mudslinging, I’d like to leave you all with this one thought: for the most part, political polls and pollsters are bullshit.
This article does a good job explaining why…
There are many ways to keep score on whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney has better odds of winning the general election, which is almost exactly six months away. Here at The Signal, we are fervent evangelists of the political prediction markets, where people place real money on the line to bet on the winner. These markets proved to be more prescient than polls in the Republican primary.
Many journalists prefer to stick to reporting on raw daily polls. While these surveys offer valuable information, it is dangerous to read too much into the daily fluctuations, especially this far in advance. Currently, Rasmussen has Romney leading Obama 49 to 44, while Rueters/Ipsos has Obama leading Romney 49 to 42. This disagreement is due to several common sources of error that occur on any poll. Averaging several polls to get an aggregate figure, as RealClearPolitics does, helps ameliorate these errors.
Upcoming work by Bob Erikson of Columbia and Chris Wlezien of Temple, recently presented at the Midwest Political Science Association conference, demonstrates a second problem with following the daily polls too closely. The researchers looked through past presidential elections, aggregated the national polls, and created the most effective forecast based on that data. They found that, even when properly aggregated and averaged, national polls do not have predictive power at this point in the cycle. … [emphasis added]
You can read the entire article to get the gist of how untrustworthy most politically-oriented polls can be, but I think it is said even better by skeptical magicians Penn & Teller
Posted in politics | Tagged: 2012, barack obama, Bullshit, congress, Democrat, election, Frank Luntz, GOP, Luntz, manipulation, markets, Mitt Romney, Obama, Penn, politics, polls, pollsters, prediction, prediction market, president, presidential, Republican, research, Romney, surveys, Tea Party, Teller, United States | Leave a Comment »
Posted by mattusmaximus on January 15, 2012
Despite the faux-surprise in the title of this post, I am not in the least surprised that there’s yet another true-believer who is trying to convince their followers that the end-of-the-world is just around the corner…
Ronald Weinland, who considers himself a prophet of God, continues to warn that Jesus Christ is returning on May 27, 2012.
For those who do not believe him and mock his message, Weinland claims that they will die from cancer.
His website, Church of God – PKG, claims that various end times events were triggered by the scattering of the Worldwide Church of God after the death of its founder, Herbert W. Armstrong. With Armstrong no longer at the helm, Weinland claims he “is the pastor of God’s Church on earth, has also been appointed by the God of Abraham to be His end-time prophet and one of the two end-time witnesses (and spokesman of both), preceding the return of Jesus Christ on May 27, 2012.” …
I like the whole “you’ll die from cancer for mocking me” bit; it just seems to show that the good “Prophet” Weinland is full of Christs’s love.
Seriously though… this again? Wasn’t it just last year when there was another high-profile failure of the end-of-the-world prediction? Now here’s another prediction of doomsday (but this time it’s the real thing, honest!). Wouldn’t you think that, given their terrible track record of failed religious predictions of this nature that people would learn to just ignore these loons by now?
Thankfully, most people will wisely ignore doom-mongers such as this self-proclaimed “Prophet”, but there will be those will be bamboozled. As for me, I just cannot wait to see what sort of excuses are offered on May 28th
Posted in doomsday, religion | Tagged: 2011, 2012, 5-27, 5-27-11, 5/27, 5/27/11, apocalypse, armaggedon, Bible, calendar, camping, Christ, cosmic, doomsday, end of the world, God, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, May 27, New Age, prediction, prophecy, Prophet, Rapture, return, Revelation, Ronald Weinland, the rapture | 4 Comments »
Posted by mattusmaximus on October 22, 2011
I think the caption says it all…
Whoops! Back to the drawing board… again.
Posted in doomsday, humor, religion | Tagged: 10-21, 10-21-11, 10/21, 10/21/11, 2011, 2012, apocalypse, armaggedon, Bible, calendar, camping, Christ, cosmic, doomsday, end of the world, God, Harold Camping, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, May 21, New Age, Oct 21, October 21, prediction, Rapture, return, Revelation, the rapture | 3 Comments »
Posted by mattusmaximus on May 23, 2011
Rather than waste any more electrons on seriously analyzing the most recent doomsday Rapture silliness and how the followers of that particular religious cult are attempting to rationalize away the spectacular failure of Judgement Day to manifest itself, I would like to offer up this humorous portrayal of why it is the Rapture did not come to pass this last Saturday…
Posted in doomsday, humor, religion | Tagged: 2011, 2012, 5-21, 5/21, 722500 days, after rapture party, apocalypse, armaggedon, atheist, Bible, calculation, calendar, Christ, cosmic, delusion, doomsday, end of the world, fantasy, fundamentalist, funny, God, Harold Camping, humor, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, looting, Macho Man, math, mathematics, May 21, Maya, Mayan, national mall, New Age, Nostradamus, numerology, prediction, Randy Savage, Rapture, religion, return, Revelation, the rapture | Leave a Comment »
Posted by mattusmaximus on May 19, 2011
I know that I’ve blogged a couple of times already (here and here) about the supposed impending “Rapture” coming up this coming Saturday, May 21st. But while I’ve written there about how loony of an idea this whole Christ-is-returning-so-it’s-the-end-of-the-world is – mostly because there are so many failed doomsday predictions that were supposedly ironclad before they failed epically – one thing I haven’t yet done is to actually seriously analyze the claims made by the would-be prophet of this weekend’s Armageddon festivities, the good Rev. Harold Camping.
It’s Judgement Day!!!
My oh my, that Jesus is one fine lookin’ dude! I wonder who does his hair?
In the following Livescience.com article, the rationale (such as it is) for Camping’s predictions is outlined. Let’s take a look at the argument and then take it seriously just long enough to show the logical flaws within it, right before we piss ourselves with laughter…
The May 21 Judgment Day meme is the brainchild of an 89-year-old radio evangelist named Harold Camping. Using a mathematical system of his own creation to interpret obscure prophecies in the Bible, Camping originally predicted that Sept. 6, 1994 would be Judgment Day, or the day of the “Rapture” when Christian believers will ascend to heaven, leaving the rest of humanity to its deservedly dreary fate.
Hold on, right there. Camping has made such a prediction before? Yes, he did – he predicted the world would end almost 17 years ago… and the world is still here. Also note this key phrase: “… Using a mathematical system of his own creation…” – what this basically means is that Camping has created a system of numerology which would allow him to manipulate the numbers of his calculation in such a fashion as to give him whatever result he wants. In other words, using such a system, folks like Camping can’t fail… that is, until they actually fail, which is what happened to Camping on Sept. 7, 1994 when we were all still here. But that’s the beauty of using slipshod and ad hoc mathematical systems such as Camping’s: since they are essentially made up out of whole cloth with the express purpose of “never failing”, a missed prediction can easily be discounted when “corrections” to the calculations are magically uncovered after the fact. This, like the thinking driving conspiracy theorizing, shows that such a system is clearly unfalsifiable: it is always right, even when it’s wrong.
The article continues:
… Here’s the gist of Camping’s calculation: He believes Christ was crucified on April 1, 33 A.D., exactly 722,500 days before May 21, 2011. That number, 722,500, is the square of 5 x 10 x 17. In Camping’s numerological system, 5 represents atonement, 10 means completeness, and seventeen means heaven. “Five times 10 times 17 is telling you a story,” Camping said on his Oakland-based talk show, Family Radio, last year. “It’s the story from the time Christ made payment for your sins until you’re completely saved.”
Okay, once again note that these numbers only make sense “in Camping’s numerological system” – which he made up. What is the rationale which justifies Camping’s numerological system as being superior to that of other failed doomsday prophets (such as Nostradamus and those claiming the Mayan calendar portends The End on Dec. 21, 2012)? And why does Camping settle on 722,500 days? Why not 722,500 seconds, minutes, months, years, or centuries? What is so special about days in Camping’s system which distinguishes them from any other unit of temporal measurement? And, assuming there is some kind of reason (whatever that could be) for using days as units, why is it that you have to multiply and subsequently square 5, 10, and 17? Why not simply add them up? Or just multiply without squaring? Or add them up and then square the result? Why not raise the product of these numbers to the third power? What is the rationale behind this calculation which explains why it could be considered trustworthy – other than, of course, the fact that it just happens to give a “prediction” of the world’s end, conveniently, during Camping’s lifetime?
And last, but not least, here’s a good question to ponder: if the Rapture is supposed to come on Saturday, May 21st, on which side of the International Date Line is that going to happen? Will the Rapture follow the rotation of the Earth, seeing as how some parts of the planet will still be on Friday night time while other portions will be on early Saturday morning time? Or is it supposed to just kind of go “poof!” all at once? But if it does that, then it can’t all happen on the same day – and why doesn’t Camping take this into account in his calculations? You can see the problem here.
Now that I’ve taken this stupidity seriously for a bit, it is now time to treat it as the utter silliness that it most certainly is: I’m off to go get ready for the After Rapture Party & Looting
Posted in doomsday, mathematics, religion | Tagged: 2010, 2011, 2012, 5-21, 5/21, 722500 days, after rapture party, apocalypse, armaggedon, atheist, Bible, calculation, calendar, Christ, cosmic, delusion, doomsday, end of the world, fantasy, fundamentalist, God, Harold Camping, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, looting, math, mathematics, May 21, Maya, Mayan, national mall, New Age, Nostradamus, numerology, prediction, Rapture, religion, return, Revelation, the rapture, Washington DC | 6 Comments »
Posted by mattusmaximus on May 12, 2011
[**Update (5-19-11): If you want to take, just for a moment, a serious look at the flaws in the calculation which produced this prediction, see my latest entry on the topic.]
I just wanted to provide an update on the fundamentalist religious loonies who keep on preaching the message that the Rapture will take place on Saturday, May 21st. According to these folks, the true followers of Jesus Christ will be magically whisked away to be with him in Heaven, leaving the rest of us poor shlubs to tough it out here on Earth.
And, apparently, these folks are serious… very, very serious: they are attempting to warn as many people as possible about the impending end-of-the-world…
One of my favorite places in Washington, D.C., is the National Mall. When you stand in the center with the U.S. Capitol on one end, the Washington Monument on the other and the Smithsonian museums flanking the sides, you can’t help but feel you’re having the quintessential D.C. experience.
Because the mall is so popular, it has become a type of free-speech zone. People often stand around hoisting signs with various political or religious messages and pass out literature.
Today’s Washington Post has a story about a group of fundamentalist Christians who are working the mall with an aggressive pamphlet campaign. These folks, who follow a radio evangelist named Harold Camping, are convinced that the world will end on May 21 at 6 p.m. Not surprisingly, they feel compelled to warn us all.
Call me a skeptic. A few years ago, I read an interesting book titled End-Time Visions : The Road to Armageddon(authored by an evangelical Christian) that chronicled a long list of failed end-of-the-world predictions. Somewhere around the house, I have a flier handed to me by a fellow who was convinced that the world was going to end in October of 1988. When it didn’t happen, the man who made the prediction, Edgar Whisenaut, insisted that his calculations had been off by one year, and it was definitely going to happen in 1989. … [emphasis mine]
Now I have to say – well, meh. I mean, come on folks, people like these have been claiming the end-of-the-world is coming ever since there’s been religious belief. And, as the bolded part above notes, there is one all important fact that every last one of these predictions have in common: they have all been dead, flat wrong. Period.
Here’s my bottom line prediction: don’t worry about the Rapture on May 21st, because it isn’t going to happen. I further predict that the true believers in this fairy tale will somehow attempt to rationalize away the glaring fact that they look like complete idiots because of how obviously wrong they were. And, for the hat trick, I predict that the next time some nutty group comes up with a religious doomsday scenario based in some esoteric reading of the Bible or another holy book, there will be far too many people willing to gobble up the nonsense.
I don’t know about you, but I’m going to be enjoying a really big laugh on May 22nd
Posted in doomsday, religion | Tagged: 2010, 2012, 5-21, 5/21, apocalypse, armaggedon, Bible, calendar, Christ, cosmic, delusion, doomsday, end of the world, fantasy, fundamentalist, God, Harold Camping, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, May 21, national mall, New Age, prediction, Rapture, return, Revelation, the rapture, Washington DC | 4 Comments »
Posted by mattusmaximus on January 4, 2011
In my previous post – Our Godless U.S. Constitution – I made mention of how back when our Constitution was ratified, there were those religious weirdos who kept insisting that unless it was “Christianized” properly, God was going to unleash His wrath upon the fledgling nation. And… it didn’t happen – last I looked, the country is still here.
Of course, the history of predicting the end-of-the-world doesn’t stop there. Hell, self-proclaimed prophets & gurus have been stating, ever since the beginning of civilization, that the world was going to end. This is true even up to our modern day… in fact, there is another group of nutty folks who say, wait for it, that the end is coming on May 21st, 2010…
By TOM BREEN, Associated Press Tom Breen, Associated Press
– Mon Jan 3, 10:01 am ET
RALEIGH, N.C. – If there had been time, Marie Exley would have liked to start a family. Instead, the 32-year-old Army veteran has less than six months left, which she’ll spend spreading a stark warning: Judgment Day is almost here.
Exley is part of a movement of Christians loosely organized by radio broadcasts and websites, independent of churches and convinced by their reading of the Bible that the end of the world will begin May 21, 2011.
To get the word out, they’re using billboards and bus stop benches, traveling caravans of RVs and volunteers passing out pamphlets on street corners. Cities from Bridgeport, Conn., to Little Rock, Ark., now have billboards with the ominous message, and mission groups are traveling through Latin America and Africa to spread the news outside the U.S. …
All I can say to this is… are you f***ing kidding me? This crap AGAIN?!! When I was in high school, some local nutcase kept going on and on about how The Rapture was going to take place in September or October of 1988 – it scared the hell out of a lot of gullible kids (and their parents), and it made the more sensible ones among us question the sanity of our fellow man.
Seriously folks, how many times do people need to have these stupid predictions made, only to have them – time & time again – fail to come true? In fact, just look at this history of iron-clad, Biblically-supported, true-believing, end-of-the-world predictions which were all dead, flat wrong!
If you are a God-fearing true believer who really does, in your heart of hearts, believe that The Rapture is going to take place on May 21st of this year (or at any time in the future), I have one question for you: before you ascend into Heaven, how about giving me all of your stuff?
Posted in doomsday, religion | Tagged: 2010, 2012, apocalypse, armaggedon, Bible, calendar, Christ, cosmic, doomsday, end of the world, God, Jesus, Jesus Christ, judgement day, May 21, New Age, prediction, Rapture, return, Revelation, the rapture | 7 Comments »